A PROPOSED ROBUST REGRESSION MODEL TO STUDY CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS IN EGYPT

Research Abstract

Developing countries face environmental challenges as they rely on non-renewable energy for economic growth. This study examined the dynamic relationship between CO2 emissions and four economic factors (manufacturing, trade, urban population, and cereal production land) in Egypt from 1990 to 2021. It introduced a new approach to estimate the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model using robust methods (M, MM, and S) and compared them with ordinary least squares (OLS) to determine the best estimate. The ARDL methodology was employed to test short-term and long-term relationships. Results showed ARDL (1,0,2,1,3) as the most suitable model. Manufacturing and Trade variables negatively impacted CO2 emissions, while Urban population and Land

Research Keywords

carbon emissions; manufacturing; trade; urban population; land under cereal production; ARDL model; robust regression.